Basics

There is no standardised method for conducting conflict analysis. The approach chosen varies according to the:

• Objectives and needs of the end user;
• Phase and nature of the conflict;
• Capacity of the end user to influence the conflict.

Therefore, what is presented below can not serve as a blueprint, but only as a collection of guiding principles.

Conflict analysis can be performed at the country and at the project level. At the country level, the national implications of the conflict and attempts to develop long-term political strategies of conflict management are examined. At the project level, the primary focus is on local impacts of the conflict, the interaction of the dynamics of the local and national levels, or on local conflicts themselves, and on devising strategies for interventions that respond sensitively to conflict. These guidelines concentrate on conflict analysis on the project level.
It is generally difficult to predict the onset or escalation of particular conflicts. Structural tensions alone do not lead to conflict. According to DfID (2002), the interactions between the following factors are critical:  

• Societal structural vulnerability.
• The opportunity for some actors to benefit from instability and violence (This includes political as well as economic benefits).
• A society’s capacity to manage or contain conflict.

Structural analysis

• Steps to be taken: Discuss and define objective and area of application f the conflict analysis

2. Definition of the term ‘conflict’

• Steps to be taken: Discuss and define, for the purpose of the analysis, the term ‘conflict’ (Consider thinking of less awkward terms).

• Steps to be taken: Review existing literature (Desk study). Conduct interviews with selected experts representing a broad spectrum of society. Discuss and clarify the various perspectives of stakeholders, looking at the history of the conflict (Analytical tools: conflict phases, timeline).

Figure 1: Timeline of events seen from different perspectives
(click inside to enlarge)

• To separate sources of tensions into security, political, social and economic sectors, as well as into local, regional, national and international levels;
• To identify connections and linkages among them;
• To develop an initial judgement of the key sources of conflict.

• Steps to be taken: Structure information into analytical categories. Identify and differentiate key sources of tensions from conflict prolonging factors (Analytical tool: conflict tree). Assess the relevance of identified topics for own programme/project. Elaborate preliminary conflict analysis. Identify aspects still to be clarified.

Figure 2: Conflict tree

Actor Analysis

• Steps to be taken: List all relevant actors, who can significantly influence the conflict or are most vulnerable to it. The list of actors should differentiate between the local, regional and national levels, and should also take into account other groups, which are allied with the parties or which are able to influence them. Analyse for each actor, their interests, relations, capacities, peace agendas, incentives:

• Interests: What interests do they have in relation to the conflict, and how do these interests influence the conflict?
• Relations: What are the relationships between the various actors?
• Capacities: What capacities do they have to negatively or positively influence conflict?
• Peace agendas: Do they have an interest in peace? What kind of peace do they want?
• Incentives: What kind of incentives could be offered to them to choose peace? Or to disengage from the conflict?

Figure 3: The onion

• Identify networks of relationships between the actors: patterns of power, alliances, neutral third parties and potential partners for cooperation (Recommended analytical tool: conflict mapping).

Figure 4: Conflict map (click inside to enlarge)

Analysis of Dynamics

• Steps to be taken: List longer term trends (Analytical tool: trend analysis). Identify the areas, in which peaceful conflict management has so far failed to make progress. Determine the direction, in which these areas are likely to develop in the near future. For example, infringements of human rights are an important area of conflict; as members of the police all belong to the dominant ethnic group, which is known not to respect human rights, and as justice is lacking, the trend is – without foreseeable interventions - most likely to continue.
• Assess the likely shorter term triggers. Identify the incidences, which are likely to have destabilising effects. For example, where xenophobic attitudes already exist, the influx of refugees is likely to aggravate tensions; where the level of frustration about official corruption is high, and a major corruption scandal confirms popular mistrust and rumours.
• Assess which factors are likely to accelerate or reduce destructive conflict dynamics (Including coping strategies of people). Every society in conflict has both the capacity for peace and for war. Identify systems and institutions, attitudes and actions, values and interests, experiences and symbols, and occasions that can mitigate or manage the tensions. For example, mitigating factors could be an independent media able to present a plurality of views, continued public confidence in the judicial process, etc.

• Think through a range of potential future conflict scenarios (Analytical tool: conflict scenario). Scenarios are particularly useful in conflict situations, where it is difficult to foresee how the conflict will develop in future. Scenarios should always be drawn up in cases, where there are dangers of rapid escalation of violence and a humanitarian crisis. By producing conflict scenarios, DC is able to prepare itself in advance for certain developments, and to make plans accordingly.
• Review the results and think of potential alternative directions, in which the conflict could develop, and the factors, which determine this direction.
• Identify the indicators that will define these scenarios.
• Make a judgement on which scenarios are most likely, and on which one’s own planning should be based.