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The ranching example scenario
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The ranching example
The base system state was described as:
Four sub-groups have been identified: the rancher, the middlemen, the
meat packing industry and the consumers of beef. The ranchers own 90%
of the cattle in Lobe. Cattle breeding and feeding practices are
inefficient. The ranchers have a strong emotional attachment to their
cattle as they equate ownership of cattle with prestige.
The ranchers sell their cattle to middlemen. The cattle reaches
consumers after going through several levels of the middlemen, thus
inflating the price of beef. The meat packing industry is small at
present but is owned by a big multinational company. The beef is packed
mainly for export....
The attributes of the sub-groups were the value of the system of each
subgroup, the economic linkages between sub-groups, and major
institutions. The meat packing industry was selected as the driving
force for the scenario because it wanted to increase its growth rate.
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The external context may be described as:
There will be a maintenance of favourable trading conditions with the
major trading blocks (EU, NAFTA, etc). No adverse weather conditions
will occur…..
Starting with the base and external context, the progression was
formulated to give the following scenario: It is the year 2000. The
demand for beef in the trading block countries (EU etc) is seen to
increase greatly over the next seven years. To meet this demand, a
multinational company invests $20 million in a meat packing plant
geared for both domestic and overseas consumption of beef.
Training is provided to help the ranchers improve their cattle breeding
and feeding practices. This will ensure a regular supply of the beef
for the meat packing plant. However, there is considerable resentment
by the ranchers. Since only a few ranchers react positively to the
efforts, the ranchers are hindered in acquiring land to expand their
ranching activities since the meat packaging company owns much of the
land.
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By 2003 the meat packing plants has been established and most ranchers
have reluctantly settled. The multi-national company pays the ranchers
high prices for their cattle. The middlemen find themselves being
forced out of their traditional supply links. The middlemen, who handle
many foodstuffs other than beef, organize into a cohesive unit and in
2002 go on strike. There is a mass hoarding of food by the housewives
and prices increase remarkably. The military is asked to provide trucks
for the transportation of essential foodstuffs...
Several such scenarios were formulated for review and evaluation of decision makers. wever, in many cases a simplified description of the step-by-step process is always possible.
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