Scenarios - Advantages and Limitations

  • Scenarios help illuminate the interaction of psychological, social, economic, cultural, political and military dimensions in a form that permits understanding many such interactions at once.
  • They are especially useful for policy decisions.
  • Scenarios help stimulate and discipline the imagination
  • Scenarios generally have illustrative and pedagogical value for the decision maker.
  • It is a formidable task to take into account and successfully predict the interplay of the various dimensions (e.g. social, political, etc.).
  • Scenarios suffer from uniqueness; they represent only the views of those experts who constructed them, and there is no guarantee that the future is accurately predicted.