Conflict analysis - Main Users / Purpose

Although Developmental Cooperation (DC) generally seeks to be neutral or non-partisan towards different conflict parties, the experiences with humanitarian aid and DC, in acute conflict situations at the beginning of the 1990s (Somalia, Rwanda), has shown that the impact of their work is not neutral, aggravating or reducing conflict. The risks of political instability and violence call for an in-depth understanding of the local situation, and place great demands on the management of developmental projects.

It is used to collect structure and to systematise information about different aspects of a conflicting environment. It analyses the sociopolitical and socio-economical context of an intervention from a particular perspective. It is the basis of an elaborate prognosis of future trends, and of the interaction of critical factors that may lead to destructive and violent behaviour.

In addition, conflict analysis can also be used as a first step for other purposes:

• Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment (PCIA): Conflict Analysis can also serve as the first step towards a better understanding of the interaction of developmental interventions in a conflict situation. PCIA is a means to anticipate or evaluate the impact of interventions (Proposed, ongoing or completed) on the structures and processes that decrease the likelihood of conflict and strengthen the chances for peaceful co-existence. PCIA analyses the impact of project activities on conflicts and forms the basis for continuous conflict impact monitoring.
• Early Warning: Conflict Analysis can also serve as the basis for systematic observation of a latent conflict over a longer period of time, in order to either detect signs of conflict escalation in time (early warning itself), or to initiate preventive measures (early response, early action).